AI commerce intelligence and route optimization
Follow AI to the sale.
We trace the route from AI answer to cart — so you can see who gets the sale.
Point of view
Being recommended by AI is not the same as being bought.
The test
Visibility is the beginning. Commercial capture is the test.
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The AI shelf has a leak
Briefing · 10 pages
From chat to cart, in five charts
Five charts · 7 pages
Per 100 brand mentions
46
168 U.S. beauty prompts × 5 captures. Per-run average.
Methodology
The Commerce Graph
The Commerce Graph maps the route from an AI recommendation, through publishers, affiliate links, retailers, marketplaces, sellers, and carts. At each hop, attribution, demand, control or revenue can leak. We measure where.
Fig. 2 — The trail, resolved
- 01AI prompt
- 02Publisher article
- 03Shopping links
- 04Every redirect
- 05Landing page
- 06Buyable?
Every link ChatGPT cited, followed to the page where the shopper lands.
168 non-branded U.S. beauty prompts, five captures, 19–24 Sep 2026. Each cited publisher article opened, every shopping link collected and each redirect resolved. On Amazon, every product page checked for who holds the Buy button.
Open the live trail
What changed
Search sent shoppers to a page. AI sends them down a route.
Search, before AI
- 01Shopper searches
- 02Clicks a result
- 03Lands on the brand or retailer page
- 04The source is visible in analytics
One click, one destination, attribution intact.
AI shopping today (Beauty, observed)
- 01
ChatGPT answer
~100% of links in the answer carry a ChatGPT tag (4,082 of 4,084)
- 02
Cited publisher page
75% of shopping links run through an affiliate network
- 03
Retailer
~3% still show an AI origin (2–4% by capture). Sephora, Ulta and Nordstrom: zero.
- 04
Checkout credit
7 in 10 shopping links credit the publisher, not the AI
- 05
Amazon Buy button
Of Amazon links with a seller result, 39% go to a reseller or a listing no one can buy from
ChatGPT, U.S., 168 non-branded beauty prompts × 5 captures, 19–24 Sep 2026. Links followed by script to the final page; no live clicks or purchases. Link shares are observed; nothing here is a revenue estimate.
The leak, measured
Where the AI origin disappears
ChatGPT tags nearly every link it sends. By the time the shopper reaches the retailer, almost none of that signal survives.
Stage 01
In the AI answer
~100%
of links inside ChatGPT's answers carry an AI source tag (4,082 of 4,084).
Stage 02
On the cited publisher page
75%
of shopping links are rerouted through an affiliate network.
Stage 03
At the retailer
~3%
still show the click came from AI. Sephora, Ulta, Nordstrom: zero.
What the data supports
Five headlines the industry hasn't priced in.
- 01
AI is sending beauty shoppers to buy. The brands can't see it.
~3 in 100 links still show an AI origin at the retailer.
- 02
ChatGPT recommends. Allure gets the credit.
7 in 10 shopping links credit the publisher, not the AI.
- 03
Being named by AI is not the same as being bought.
46% of brand mentions end in a shopping link to that brand.
- 04
4 in 10 Amazon links from AI-cited pages leak.
Of Amazon links with a seller result, 39% go to a reseller or a listing no one can buy from.
- 05
Prestige beauty's AI blind spot is Amazon.
On Amazon, prestige leaks more than mass: 38% vs 23%.
The method
Observed, not modelled.
Every figure is a per-run average of five captures, with the range across captures. Link shares are observed by script — no panels, no revenue estimates, no live clicks. Aqxle maps the Commerce Graph: the route from an AI recommendation, through the publisher and the retailer, to the cart.
How we measureOne email a week. The leak, measured.
Weekly analysis at the intersection of AI search and commerce, plus the monthly deep dive before anyone else sees it. Written for the people who own the number.
Readers are affiliated with 225+ U.S. organizations across brands, retail, media, ad tech, measurement, agencies and investment, including Amazon, Google, PepsiCo, Procter & Gamble, Best Buy, JPMorganChase, Bloomberg, The New York Times, Netflix, Meta, The Trade Desk, Nielsen, Adobe, Microsoft, WPP Media, Accenture Song and the IAB.
Reader affiliations are shown for context and do not imply endorsement, sponsorship or affiliation with Aqxle.